A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Antigua and Barbuda, signifying that tropical storm conditions are expected within the specified area within 36 hours. Additionally, a Hurricane Watch has been issued, indicating that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, likely within the next 24 to 36 hours. Residents are urged to complete disaster preparations and seek safe shelter promptly.
As of 5:00 AM AST (0900 UTC), Tropical Storm Tammy’s centre is near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 58.3 West. This places it approximately 316 miles southeast of Antigua. Tammy is moving toward the west-northwest at a speed of 8 mph (17 km/h).
The storm is anticipated to make a turn toward the northwest by this evening, followed by a north-northwestward and northward trajectory on Saturday night through Sunday. On this forecasted path, Tammy is expected to move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and on Saturday, then proceed north of the Leeward Islands on Sunday.
Rainfall accumulation in excess of 6 inches is possible along Tammy’s path. As a result, residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas should relocate to higher ground, and those near slopes should take precautions against mudslides.
Here are the key details from the 8:00 AM AST advisory:
Alerts and Warnings:
The advisory has resulted in a series of new watches and warnings for several areas:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the following regions:
- Dominica
- Guadeloupe
- Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Barbados and Martinique.
- A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, as well as Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch and Hurricane Watch mean that tropical storm and hurricane conditions, respectively, are possible in the watch area, typically within the next 24 to 48 hours.
- Location: At this time, Tammy is positioned at latitude 14.0 North and longitude 58.4 West. It’s approximately 90 miles (150 km) northeast of Barbados and about 180 miles (290 km) east-southeast of Martinique.
- Maximum Sustained Winds: The storm’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph (100 km/h).
- Movement: Tammy is moving in a west-northwest direction at a rate of 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to persist through the afternoon. By this evening, a turn toward the northwest is anticipated, followed by a north-northwestward and northward turn on Saturday night through Sunday night. Based on the forecast track, Tammy’s centre is anticipated to move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and on Saturday, subsequently heading north of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday.
- Intensity: Gradual strengthening is projected over the next few days. Tammy is expected to reach or approach hurricane intensity as it moves near or over parts of the Leeward Islands.
- Wind Field: Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the centre.
- Minimum Central Pressure: Based on reconnaissance aircraft data, the storm’s minimum central pressure measures 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
Impacts:
As Tammy approaches the region, the following impacts are anticipated:
- Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, likely beginning later today and tonight.
- Hurricane conditions are possible in parts of the Leeward Islands on Saturday.
- Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area, also expected to commence later today.
Rainfall from Tammy is expected to bring storm total accumulations as follows:
- Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches.
- Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches.
- British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches.
These rainfall levels may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with potential mudslides in elevated terrain.
In addition, storm surge could elevate water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near the path of Tammy across the Leeward Islands. Furthermore, swells generated by the storm will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles over the next few days, potentially causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
The NHC will issue the next complete advisory at 11:00 AM AST. It is crucial for residents and visitors in the impacted areas to stay vigilant and closely monitor the latest weather advisories. Preparedness measures should be taken promptly to ensure safety in the face of this developing weather event.