By Robert A. Emmanuel
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mission Chief to Antigua said the global financial institution’s projections for 2023-2024 economic outlook was based on a reduction in tourism demand and export proceeds.
The IMF, which releases bi-annual economic outlooks for each country, expressed its economic growth projections of 5.5 percent for this year with a 5.4 percent for next year.
In a recent interview with sate media ABS TV, Prime Minister Gaston Browne considered this growth projection “conservative”.
Emine Boz, who was appointed to lead the global financial institution’s mission team for the country, told Observer that “[t]he outturns for tourist arrivals in 2022 exceeded our expectations and [we] have therefore upgraded our growth estimates relative to the October release of the World Economic Outlook from 6 percent to 6.4 percent”.
She noted Antigua and Barbuda’s growth would be “somewhat moderate in 2023-24 compared to 2022, as the slowdown in its trading partners weighs on tourism demand and export proceeds”, referencing the slowdown in projected growth for advanced economies like the US.
When speaking on the challenges facing the country as the government looks to return the economy to pre-pandemic figures, she explained that the global tightening of financial conditions had made it “more difficult to finance fiscal deficits, extend maturities and roll over debt”.
Referring back to the Concluding Report for the 2022 Mission Team, it noted that those tighter global financing conditions weighed on economic activity.
The tightening of financial conditions can be described as a monetary policy tool, monitored by central banks as a way to dictate spending, saving and investment plans of businesses and households, especially in a high inflation market.
“Strong growth recovery from the pandemic in Antigua and Barbuda provides an opportunity to bolster revenues and build fiscal buffers. Having strong fiscal and external buffers is especially important for Antigua and Barbuda, as well other countries in the region, given the risk of natural disasters,” Boz said.
Central Bank figures presented by the Prime Minister, however, placed the country’s economic growth for 2023 at 9.4 percent growth.