Friday, October 20, 2023 – 5:00 PM AST
As Hurricane Tammy edges closer to the Leeward Islands, residents of Antigua and Barbuda are in high alert mode. The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows that Tammy’s eye is expected to reach the Leeward Islands within the next 24 hours.
At 5:00 PM AST, the centre of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 14.3 North and longitude 59.2 West, placing it 224 miles from Antigua. The hurricane is currently moving at a forward speed of 7 mph (11 km/h) in the west-northwest direction. The NHC reports that Tammy’s maximum sustained winds remain at 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, and gradual strengthening is expected over the next couple of days. This intensification could elevate Tammy to hurricane status as it approaches the Leeward Islands.
Key advisories and warnings have been issued for several areas:
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.
- Dominica is under a Hurricane Watch.
- A Tropical Storm Warning has been declared for Dominica, Saba, and St. Eustatius.
- A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and Martinique.
A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are expected within the warned area within the next 24 hours, necessitating immediate preparations to safeguard life and property.
Besides the hurricane’s potential wind impacts, heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding are of significant concern throughout the region:
- The Leeward Islands are anticipated to receive 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with maximum amounts of up to 12 inches.
- The Northern Windward Islands may experience 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with maximum amounts of 6 inches.
- Areas including the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico could expect 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with maximum amounts of 4 inches.
These rainfalls pose a risk of flash floods, urban flooding, and mudslides, particularly in elevated terrains.
Storm surge is another threat, with water levels potentially rising by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near the hurricane’s center as it traverses the Leeward Islands. The surge will also bring large and perilous waves along the coast.
Swells generated by Hurricane Tammy will continue to impact the Lesser Antilles in the coming days, potentially causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. All residents are advised to monitor the latest updates from their national meteorological service and follow official instructions closely.
Antigua and Barbuda, in particular, should remain vigilant and make sure all necessary preparations are completed as Hurricane Tammy advances. The next intermediate advisory will be issued at 8:00 PM AST, with the complete advisory to follow at 11:00 PM AST, providing further updates on this evolving weather situation. Residents are strongly encouraged to prioritize their safety and the safety of their loved ones.