By Robert A. Emmanuel
With the Antigua Barbuda Labour Party (ABLP) labelling September 17 as its official by-election campaign launch date, the candidates representing the three political parties vying for the seat and the public may soon learn of the date of the by-election.
Four months on from the resignation of United Progressive Party’s (UPP’s) candidate, former MP Kelvin ‘Shugy’ Simon and the contentious election petition against him, whether or not the newly selected ABLP candidate Senator Dwayne George had made sufficient headwind in the political sphere after his surprising departure from the opposition ranks, or whether ‘Shugy’ has cemented his position in the constituency remains to be seen.
However, two political commentators sat down yesterday on Observer’s Big Issues to discuss the upcoming by-election and its permutations for the future political landscape.
Political commentator and economist Petra Williams said all signs point to September 17 as the potential date when the governing party will “concentrate all of its election machinery”.
George, who was a member of Simon’s campaign team and a member of the UPP, will be seeking to defeat his former political ally and convince voters of his ability to represent the constituency.
Williams suggested that the strategy from the ABLP was that George could bring sufficient support from constituents but added that the newly appointed senator needed to convince voters on his past disagreements on government policy and decision making.
“Elections are very fickle. First, of course, we would have seen the swing because normally the margins in St Mary’s South would have been narrower than what [Kelvin] Simon was able to pull out for the last election, so he would have had a significant in-road in terms of gathering persons to his side.
“And I am really struggling to see how, in this short space of time, that could be successfully overcome, especially putting a new face on the ground; however, resources do make an impact on the ground.
“One of the concerns would be persons would not be comfortable with the sudden switch … and the fact that he would have ‘deserted’ his party for greener grass opportunities,” Williams explained.
However, she added that the Senator could have thought that he would better serve the people he cared about than by sitting on the opposite bench.
Meanwhile, Attorney-at-law and former parliamentarian in St Kitts and Nevis, Dwyer Astaphan believes that the UPP could have been more impactful in its campaign in the January 18 general elections, suggesting that the opposition party was in need of more proactive leadership.
“I don’t believe [the political party] was strategically prudent as it could have been in the election and I think it continues, even from the distance from which I watch the Antigua politics.
“It seems to me, from experience, that an opposition leader, aspiring to the Prime Ministership has to convince the people of the country he is a Prime Minister and that is something that Mr Pringle has to prove; Mr Lovell seems to have problems doing that,” Astaphan suggested.
Jamale Pringle was made interim political leader, succeeding Harold Lovell immediately after the general election results, where Lovell lost his bid for the St John’s City East seat by six votes.
However, the convention for the political party has yet to be held to select its new political leader, with Pringle suggesting that it will be held after the by-election.
Williams supported Astaphan’s argument, stating, “I don’t think they have been the best at going after some of the errors and blunders of the Labour Party; some [of those missteps] they have done but I think overall that the strategy they are engaging is to say ‘look, people this is yours, you have to bring us to power’ and it has always been my contention that political parties exist to win.”
She said that the recent general election result was a significant step for the opposition but one which it failed to capitalise on.
St John’s Rural West MP Richard Lewis, St John’s Rural North candidate Pearl Quinn Williams and the current leader Pringle were some of the names who were reportedly interested in the leadership position.
Williams said that she “liked” Lewis as a potential leader pick.
“As an outsider looking in, I like his drive, the process of how he thinks things through, except the Five Islands University thing which he has come full circle on that, outside of that, I think he would make an effective Leader of the Opposition,” she said.