Analysis based on Atlantic Council foreign policy & energy reports
Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election. Here are some of the ways it can potentially impact the Caribbean region in the coming year and beyond.
Key Changes Ahead:
- Possible rollback of Harris/Biden Caribbean initiatives
- Current diplomatic momentum at risk after 2022-23 re-engagement
- The U.S.-Caribbean Partnership to Address the Climate Crisis 2030 (PACC 2030) at risk
- $100B+ clean energy investment could lose federal support
- Trade policies may shift dramatically
- Trump promises baseline tariffs on all imports
Trade & Investment Outlook:
- Promised baseline global tariffs could affect Caribbean trade
- Caribbean exports might face new barriers to US market
- “America First” approach may limit regional cooperation
- Focus on US domestic issues could reduce Caribbean aid
- China competition could intensify under stricter trade barriers
- Caribbean caught between major powers as Trump targets Chinese influence
Energy & Climate:
- US commitment to clean energy funding could be rescinded
- Trump pledges to claw back “unspent” green energy funds
- Focus shift to fossil fuels over renewables
- Caribbean climate resilience projects may lose US backing
- Faster LNG export approvals likely
- Could affect Caribbean energy prices and transition plans
- Further progress on COP initiatives such as the Loss and Damage Fund could face challenges from the incumbent administration
Security Cooperation:
- Focus may return to traditional security vs climate security
- Gang violence and arms trafficking need urgent attention
- Less emphasis on climate crisis support
- Caribbean especially vulnerable to rising seas, extreme weather
- Caribbean Basin Security Initiative could see changes
Critical Uncertainties:
- Caribbean may accelerate partnerships with other nations
- India, UAE, African Union becoming more engaged
- USMCA review in 2026 could affect regional trade
- Trump plans fresh demands on Mexico, affecting Caribbean trade flows
Bottom Line: Trump presidency could significantly alter US-Caribbean momentum built in 2022-23. Caribbean nations may need to diversify international partnerships further.
Source: Analysis based on reports by @AtlanticCouncil experts David L. Goldwyn and Andrea Clabough on US foreign policy and energy outlook 2024-25.
What’s your take? How would these changes affect Caribbean communities and economies? Share your perspective below!
