By Azara Lavia
A political analyst is closely watching the St Peter by-election, which will serve as a key test for the Antigua Barbuda Labour Party’s (ABLP) grip on the constituency.
This election follows the death of independent MP Asot Michael, a former ABLP member whose shift to running as an independent candidate in 2023 had significantly altered voter dynamics in St Peter.
Winston Henry, social and political analyst, finds this race particularly interesting due to the history between Rawdon Turner and the former MP Michael. Turner had previously challenged Michael in the last general election, and the outcome of this by-election may provide a clearer picture of voter sentiment.
Henry also highlighted a historical challenge for the ABLP when it comes to transitioning long-serving candidates. “Historically, the Antigua Labour Party has struggled when replacing long-standing candidates with new faces, particularly when those candidates have held a seat for multiple terms. The ABLP’s experience with the seats of John E St Luce and Hilroy Humphreys both illustrate this dynamic. When seasoned candidates step down and new ones are introduced, the party tends to lose the seat,” Henry explained. “So this is going to be a very interesting election.”
Henry also raised concerns about voter apathy, noting that in the 2023 general election, over 1,000 voters failed to cast their ballots. He suggested that this may offer the Opposition (UPP) an opportunity to gain ground if they can effectively rally their support base. “The St Peter constituency has long felt neglected, even during Asot Michael’s time in the ABLP. Many voters may have cast a protest vote against the party’s leadership in favor of Michael,” he said.
He added that a sizable portion of the electorate may reject Rawdon Turner’s candidacy due to frustration over unfulfilled promises from past leaders. “There are likely many in the constituency who feel disillusioned, having witnessed promises made without being delivered. Turner may struggle to convince voters, as they may not believe he can deliver on the same level that Michael did. If you look at the numbers, there’s a substantial group of about a thousand people who didn’t vote, and it’s assumed that a large portion of that group would not have supported the ABLP, as the party’s core voters largely showed up. This opens up room for the United Progressive Party to make significant strides.”
With these insights in mind, many are keenly observing how voter turnout, party loyalty, and the strategic efforts of the candidates will shape the outcome of the St Peter by-election.
