By Samantha Simon
As the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins, the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service and the National Office of Disaster Services (NODS) held a press briefing to discuss the forecast and the country’s preparedness.
The outlook for the season is alarming, with forecasters predicting a potentially hyperactive season due to a combination of record warm temperatures in the North Atlantic and the anticipated transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions.
Dale Destin, Director of the Met Office, presented the collective forecast from approximately 25 agencies, which indicates an above normal season with an 80 percent or higher confidence level.
The forecast predicts 23 named storms (range: 14-39), 11 hurricanes (range: 7-16), and five major hurricanes (range: 2-11), significantly higher than those of an average season, which typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Destin explained the primary factors contributing to the heightened activity.
“We’re looking at a record warm North Atlantic, and I can tell you it is warmer than it was last year, and last year was a record,” he said. “We’re also looking at a transition from El Niño to La Niña. El Niño, we know, suppresses hurricane seasons. La Niña does the opposite.”
The combination of these two factors creates a near-perfect scenario for a potentially super hyperactive hurricane season.
“If you have both warmer than normal record-breaking temperatures across the Atlantic and then you have La Niña or cooler than normal seasonal temperatures across the equatorial Eastern and Central Pacific, then you almost have the perfect ingredients for a super hyperactive hurricane season,” Destin warned.
Sherrod James, the Director of NODS, discussed the country’s preparedness efforts, highlighting the ongoing collaboration and coordination activities with various agencies and community groups.
He emphasised the importance of not only improving physical infrastructure but also addressing cultural practices that contribute to vulnerability.
“We have to start taking the actual behaviour of ‘let’s prepare for something, let’s do a little bit every day so that when we find ourselves in that situation, we don’t have to do something drastic’,” James advised.
He also stressed the significance of having open conversations with family, friends, and colleagues about emergency plans and being honest with oneself about preparedness.
Both Destin and James acknowledged that while not everyone may have the same access to resources, preparing for a disaster should be considered a low-regret matter.
“You prepare for a hazard; it doesn’t happen. It doesn’t happen in the severity that you thought it was going to happen. You would have prepared, and the items that you would have secured can be used otherwise going forward,” Destin remarked.
As the season progresses, the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service and NODS will continue to closely monitor conditions and provide timely information to help the public stay informed and prepared.
Residents are urged to take necessary precautions and prioritise their safety and the safety of their loved ones.
“I don’t want persons to lull themselves into a false sense of security — ‘I’ve been through a category four, I don’t need to prepare for a category one or two. I don’t need to, it’s just a tropical storm.’ Each of these has its own particular hazard. All you have to be is not prepared for it to have a serious impact on your life,” James cautioned.
As Antigua and Barbuda faces the prospect of a challenging hurricane season, authorities emphasise the importance of collective responsibility, preparedness, and resilience in weathering the storms that may come.
