The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has officially commenced, and forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are warning of an above-normal season ahead.
However, there is some respite for coastal residents as the tropics are expected to remain relatively quiet for at least the next seven days.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued its annual outlook for the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
The forecast paints a concerning picture, with an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
According to the outlook, the Atlantic basin could see anywhere from 17 to 25 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher.
Of these, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher, and 4 to 7 are predicted to reach major hurricane status, classified as Category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The primary drivers behind this active season are the ongoing La Niña conditions and record-warm water temperatures in the Atlantic basin, including the northern Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.
Despite the ominous forecast, the National Hurricane Center has provided some reassurance, stating that “the tropics look like they’ll stay relatively quiet for at least the next 7 days.”
This brief reprieve offers coastal communities a window of opportunity to prepare for the potentially turbulent months ahead.
Emergency management officials are urging residents in hurricane-prone areas to review their preparedness plans, stock up on essential supplies, and stay informed about the latest weather updates.
The 2024 hurricane season will use the names Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William – the same list used in 2018.
These names will be recycled in 2030 unless any are retired due to significant impacts from a particular storm.
As the season progresses, forecasters at NOAA and other meteorological agencies will continue to monitor conditions closely and provide regular updates to help communities brace for potential storms and take necessary precautions.
