By Kenicia Francis
From excessive rainfall leading to floods, to an earthquake and waterspout warnings, this week, Antigua and Barbuda has seen the effects of nature in full force.
According to the Director of the Antigua Barbuda Met Office, Dale Destin, on Tuesday the nation was inundated by a record of 9.48 inches of rain, causing several areas across the country to flood which contributed to several car crashes.
On Wednesday, a 5.3 earthquake shook Antigua, Guadeloupe, and Montserrat, and a waterspout advisory for the northern coastal waters of Antigua was later issued.
Thursday saw a similar forecast as Tuesday, with intense rainfall estimated at 10.38 inches.
Dustin, who also operates a personal weather blog called 268Weather, made an early prediction anticipating the recent weather.
“The year will likely be wetter than usual for Antigua” and for, “the rainfall total for 2024 for the island to be above normal and possibly be among the wettest on record,” he stated in the blog. “This would be the wettest year since 2011, if the forecast pans out.
“Given the wetter-than-normal forecast, it’s crucial to prepare for higher chances of excessive rainfall and flash flooding this year. Stay informed, update emergency plans, and take necessary precautions to protect lives, livelihoods and property. Let’s act now to enhance resilience and minimise potential consequences.”
In another article on his blog, he stated: “My April forecast is out, and it calls for an active or above-normal season with a high chance of it being well above normal or a super hyperactive one. The prediction is for a near record-breaking 27 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) of 233.”
ACE, he explains, “is the universally accepted metric used by meteorologists and climatologists around the world to classify the overall activity of a hurricane season.
“For the first time in forecasting the hurricane season, a super hyperactive season is more likely than not. There is a notable 66 percent chance of the ACE exceeding 223. Further, there is an 88 percent chance of more than 19 named storms; a 58 percent chance of more than 11 hurricanes and a 60 percent chance of more than 6 major hurricanes,” the article continued.
“If the forecast pans out, this season would be the third most active on record behind 1933 and 2005, using the ACE only as the metric to classify the activity of a season. Further, it would tie with 2020 and 2005 for the record number of major hurricanes of at least Category 3. Additionally, it would go down as the third busiest hurricane season behind 2020 and 2005 using the metric of the number of named storms. Furthermore, the season would rank fifth for the most hurricanes on record dating back to 1851, along with 1995, 1950, 1933, 1916 and 1887.”
Another article states that, “The 2024 heat season is expected to be much warmer than usual, perhaps reaching record-breaking levels. Models surveyed indicate at least an 80 percent chance of the heat season being warmer than usual with daily max temperatures more frequently than usual exceeding 35 °C (95 °F). With such temperatures, the heat index will exceed 45 °C (113 °F) more than usual.”
It explains that “Our heat season runs officially from May 1 to October 31, which is also true for most of the Caribbean. During this time, the sun is at a high angle in the sky which leads to more direct and intense solar radiation, resulting in increased heat at the Earth’s surface. The existence of more moisture in the atmosphere also explains the greater heat at this time of the year as the water vapor serves as a natural greenhouse gas trapping the heat from the sun.”
“The heat season in Antigua and Barbuda brings with it the risk of heat-related illnesses, which can range from mild heat exhaustion to life-threatening heatstroke. Vulnerable populations such as the elderly, young children, pregnant women, and individuals with chronic health conditions are particularly susceptible to the effects of extreme heat. It’s essential to recognize the signs of heat-related illnesses, including dizziness, nausea, headaches, rapid heartbeat, and confusion, and take immediate action if symptoms occur,” the article warns.
