By Elesha George
With just days to go before the January 14 by-election in the St Peter constituency, political analyst Peter Wickham has weighed in on the stakes for country’s two major political parties.
Speaking on state media, Wickham described the election as a potential turning point for the ruling Antigua Barbuda Labour Party (ABLP) and a crucial test for the opposition United Progressive Party (UPP).
Wickham, who has participated in several election polling exercises in Antigua and Barbuda, noted that the by-election comes under unique circumstances, following the recent death of the Independent Member of Parliament for the constituency, Asot Michael.
Historically, St Peter has been a stronghold for the ABLP, but its voter dynamics shifted after Michael ran as an Independent in 2023. Wickham predicts that most independent voters may return to the ABLP fold, tipping the scales in favour of the ruling party.
“It’s a referendum certainly on the government, and one would think that if they do badly, there’s an implication there. If however the UPP does not prevail, I don’t know that it will be a significant blow to the UPP, because I think that’s consistent with people’s expectations,” he explained.
The candidates – UPP’s George Wehner and ABLP’S Rawdon Turner – both face challenges, having been previously rejected by voters in other elections. However, Wickham dismissed this as a major factor, stating that party support at the national level often outweighs individual candidate appeal.
The pollster believes that contesting this seat risks highlighting the UPP’s vulnerabilities and draining resources that could be better used to build for the next general election.
“If I were advising the UPP, I would not have contested it because it essentially gives the ABLP another platform to demonstrate that the UPP has been ineffective,” he said.
Wickham also pointed to the perception of weak leadership within the UPP as a factor in its recent popularity decline.
“The UPP and its leader, Jamale Pringle, are having some serious challenges where confidence is concerned,” he remarked.
For the ABLP, Wickham sees the by-election as an opportunity to showcase stability and readiness ahead of future elections. “At the time of the last election, the ABLP narrowly won. And there were serious concerns as to the government stability, but one could argue that it has grown in its time in office, largely unaccounted to the fact that the UPP has struggled a bit, has lost executive members and a member of Parliament, which is a significant blow that it has taken.”
Wickham notes that in essence, this is not just about one seat at stake, it’s about sending a message regarding party strength, voter confidence, and readiness for the challenges ahead.
